Statistics

You can do anything with statistics. It has been said often and truly.

A mate of mine insisted, this is in the early '70s, that he and his recent bride were avid supporters of the breast-feeding of children.

He was so adamant I had to press him further. He told me that 80% of people in prison at that time were bottle-fed.

I mentioned that at the time those people were children the decision to bottle-feed babies accounted for some 90% of cases (from my information gathered as a mid-wife from my fellow mid-wives).

Taken together those figures would seem to indicate that there is more likelihood that a breast-fed child would end up in prison.

I suppose you have guessed that I don't have many true friends. But then, who does?

An advert, or, rather, item of propaganda (**), on Australian TV claimed that in 45% of boating accidents alcohol was involved.

I've done my time in boats and on the waterways with mates in Australia. I have to tell you I estimate that in more than 55%, much more than 55%, of boating adventures, alcohol is involved. Oh yes.

So how come the non-drinkers are causing a disproportionate number of accidents?

(OK, it is nowhere near rigorous, but I could not resist it).

** I say "propaganda" because an advert advertises products and services. A government version of what looks like the same thing seeks to change ideas, influence public opinion, and not to promote sales. It is qualitatively different.

Monday Morning, Clean Desk

I worked with a fellah who put me on to this. So I am promoting his idea, not my own. But I loved it.

There are all these people in positions of power who specialise in saying "no". There is something the people like to do. There are people who for whatever reason not only dislike doing that thing but also wish to stop others doing it too.

So, say there is a particular campaign driven by the "no brigade". If they are successful in stamping out that thing that irks them, they will come into work on monday morning and find an empty desk. Job done. No more work. Out of work.

That doesn't happen. They won't let it. They already have a new thing up their collective sleeves to wheel into place. After all, they are the "no" experts, so they can do all that is required to remove anything from the playing field. Publish partial and selected facts to create a character arc in the population, to get them on-side. And away we go again.

So don't yield to the peer pressure they have created and heavy me to stop doing whatever the current target is. Next year, they will be doing the same with something you like doing. Word.

And that was my mate's contribution.

Oh - I said "partial" back there. Here's some information for you.

In New Zealand, the annual excise on tobacco product sales is $1b. The annual healthcare cost for smoking related problems is $300m. This leaves a massive $700m going into consolidated revenue to benefit all.

Published information (propaganda, n. Government adverts) gives only the health care cost to persuade the mob that smokers are costing them money.

So all the smokers stop tomorrow. Healthcare costs for smokers will not immediately stop. The government is down $1b per year. Who is going to make good the shortfall of at least, at least the $700m balance?

Everyone is. Which is fine for the ex-smokers because they end up paying less net than they did. But are you non-smokers who pressure and criticise and marginalise smokers, are you ready to put you hand in your pocket and pay for us all to stop without harming the country's economy.

Then there are the little shops that will lose business.

Then there is a good excuse for the government to introduce cut-backs in health services - despite the fact the ex-smoker care need would not stop overnight and has already been more than paid for by the potential users.

And don't even get me started on the idea that smokers and drinkers should go further down the queue for health care!

Don't accept what you are told - even by me. Check it out, expand it, get the whole drum of oil before you decide how you are going to behave towards others.